Subject: SLS
TrueCar Releases Analysis of March and 2022 First Quarter Industry Sales
EV and hybrid vehicle demand skyrockets amid surging fuel prices
SANTA MONICA, Calif., March 30, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,246,993 units in March 2022, down 25% from a year ago and up 5% from February 2022, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 13.6 million, down 23% from March 2021. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,084,168 units, down 24% from a year ago and up 2% from February 2022.
"Over the last month we've seen a huge spike in electric vehicle and hybrid prospects on the TrueCar site, with a 380% increase year-over-year for EVs and a 180% jump year-over-year for hybrids," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "This is the largest monthly jump we've ever seen and understandably so with current fuel prices."
"This month in spite of low inventory, we're seeing mild fleet recovery as we head into the summer season," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar.
Additional Industry Insights (from TrueCar):
- Total sales for March 2022 are expected to be down 25% from a year ago and up 5% from February 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Fleet sales for March 2022 are expected to be down 30% from a year ago and up 31% from February 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Incentive spend is down 54% from last year.
- Average transaction price is projected to be up 15% from a year ago and down 1% from February 2022.
- Total SAAR is expected to be down 23% from a year ago at 13.6 million units.
- Used vehicle sales for March 2022 are expected to reach 3.6 million, down 13% from a year ago and up 11% from February 2022.
- The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.6% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8%.
- The average loan term on a new vehicle for March 2022 is 70 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is about 71 months.
- Quarterly average transaction price is projected to be up 16% from a year ago and up 3.5% from Q4 2021.
- Quarterly incentive spend is down 51% from Q1 2021.
Total Unit Sales | |||||||
Manufacturer | Mar 2022 Forecast | Mar 2021 Actual | Feb 2022 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change | MoM % Change | MoM % Change |
BMW | 24,275 | 31,888 | 26,074 | -23.9% | -26.7% | -6.9% | -17.2% |
Daimler | 20,384 | 24,651 | 19,237 | -17.3% | -20.4% | 6.0% | -5.8% |
Ford | 154,405 | 213,300 | 128,229 | -27.6% | -30.3% | 20.4% | 7.0% |
GM | 205,018 | 245,606 | 161,705 | -16.5% | -19.6% | 26.8% | 12.7% |
Honda | 103,045 | 148,538 | 84,394 | -30.6% | -33.2% | 22.1% | 8.5% |
Hyundai | 69,504 | 78,409 | 55,906 | -11.4% | -14.6% | 24.3% | 10.5% |
Kia | 62,609 | 66,523 | 49,182 | -5.9% | -9.4% | 27.3% | 13.2% |
Nissan | 75,308 | 128,334 | 61,674 | -41.3% | -43.5% | 22.1% | 8.5% |
Stellantis | 153,375 | 183,333 | 136,580 | -16.3% | -19.4% | 12.3% | -0.2% |
Subaru | 47,605 | 65,726 | 44,866 | -27.6% | -30.3% | 6.1% | -5.7% |
Tesla | 44,525 | 23,050 | 42,742 | 93.2% | 86.0% | 4.2% | -7.4% |
Toyota | 179,919 | 256,485 | 160,645 | -29.9% | -32.5% | 12.0% | -0.4% |
Volkswagen Group | 39,159 | 70,276 | 36,355 | -44.3% | -46.3% | 7.7% | -4.3% |
Industry | 1,246,993 | 1,604,983 | 1,057,945 | -22.3% | -25.2% | 17.9% | 4.8% |
Retail Unit Sales | |||||||
Manufacturer | Mar 2022 Forecast | Mar 2021 Actual | Feb 2022 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change | MoM % Change | MoM % Change |
BMW | 23,710 | 30,576 | 25,623 | -22.5% | -25.3% | -7.5% | -17.7% |
Daimler | 19,338 | 23,903 | 18,843 | -19.1% | -22.1% | 2.6% | -8.8% |
Ford | 115,884 | 166,090 | 104,219 | -30.2% | -32.8% | 11.2% | -1.2% |
GM | 157,090 | 215,813 | 140,659 | -27.2% | -29.9% | 11.7% | -0.7% |
Honda | 102,017 | 145,541 | 84,040 | -29.9% | -32.5% | 21.4% | 7.9% |
Hyundai | 69,399 | 68,605 | 55,320 | 1.2% | -2.6% | 25.5% | 11.5% |
Kia | 58,517 | 55,144 | 47,352 | 6.1% | 2.2% | 23.6% | 9.8% |
Nissan | 66,004 | 85,771 | 50,977 | -23.0% | -25.9% | 29.5% | 15.1% |
Stellantis | 117,910 | 157,102 | 114,162 | -24.9% | -27.7% | 3.3% | -8.2% |
Subaru | 46,351 | 63,925 | 43,193 | -27.5% | -30.2% | 7.3% | -4.6% |
Tesla | 44,174 | 23,050 | 42,727 | 91.6% | 84.5% | 3.4% | -8.1% |
Toyota | 164,823 | 226,277 | 141,838 | -27.2% | -29.9% | 16.2% | 3.3% |
Volkswagen Group | 38,370 | 62,461 | 35,820 | -38.6% | -40.8% | 7.1% | -4.8% |
Industry | 1,084,168 | 1,380,536 | 947,445 | -21.5% | -24.4% | 14.4% | 1.7% |
Fleet Unit Sales | |||||||
Manufacturer | Mar 2022 Forecast | Mar 2021 Actual | Feb 2022 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change | MoM % Change | MoM % Change |
BMW | 565 | 1,312 | 451 | -56.9% | -58.5% | 25.4% | 11.5% |
Daimler | 1,046 | 748 | 394 | 39.9% | 34.7% | 165.8% | 136.3% |
Ford | 38,521 | 47,210 | 24,010 | -18.4% | -21.4% | 60.4% | 42.6% |
GM | 47,928 | 29,793 | 21,046 | 60.9% | 54.9% | 127.7% | 102.4% |
Honda | 1,028 | 2,997 | 354 | -65.7% | -67.0% | 190.7% | 158.4% |
Hyundai | 105 | 9,804 | 586 | -98.9% | -99.0% | -82.1% | -84.1% |
Kia | 4,092 | 11,379 | 1,830 | -64.0% | -65.4% | 123.6% | 98.8% |
Nissan | 9,304 | 42,563 | 10,697 | -78.1% | -79.0% | -13.0% | -22.7% |
Stellantis | 35,465 | 26,231 | 22,418 | 35.2% | 30.2% | 58.2% | 40.6% |
Subaru | 1,254 | 1,801 | 1,673 | -30.4% | -33.0% | -25.0% | -33.4% |
Tesla | 351 | - | 15 | 2308.7% | 2041.0% | ||
Toyota | 15,096 | 30,208 | 18,807 | -50.0% | -51.9% | -19.7% | -28.7% |
Volkswagen Group | 789 | 7,815 | 535 | -89.9% | -90.3% | 47.4% | 31.0% |
Industry | 162,826 | 224,447 | 110,500 | -27.5% | -30.1% | 47.4% | 31.0% |
Fleet Penetration | |||||
Manufacturer | Mar 2022 Forecast | Mar 2021 Actual | Feb 2022 Actual | YoY % Change | MoM % Change |
BMW | 2.3% | 4.1% | 1.7% | -43.4% | 34.7% |
Daimler | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 69.2% | 150.9% |
Ford | 24.9% | 22.1% | 18.7% | 12.7% | 33.2% |
GM | 23.4% | 12.1% | 13.0% | 92.7% | 79.6% |
Honda | 1.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% | -50.6% | 138.1% |
Hyundai | 0.2% | 12.5% | 1.0% | -98.8% | -85.6% |
Kia | 6.5% | 17.1% | 3.7% | -61.8% | 75.7% |
Nissan | 12.4% | 33.2% | 17.3% | -62.7% | -28.8% |
Stellantis | 23.1% | 14.3% | 16.4% | 61.6% | 40.9% |
Subaru | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.7% | -3.9% | -29.3% |
Tesla | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2212.2% | |
Toyota | 8.4% | 11.8% | 11.7% | -28.8% | -28.3% |
Volkswagen Group | 2.0% | 11.1% | 1.5% | -81.9% | 36.8% |
Industry | 13.1% | 14.0% | 10.4% | -6.6% | 25.0% |
Total Market Share | |||
Manufacturer | Mar 2022 Forecast | Mar 2021 Actual | Feb 2022 Actual |
BMW | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% |
Daimler | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% |
Ford | 12.4% | 13.3% | 12.1% |
GM | 16.4% | 15.3% | 15.3% |
Honda | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.0% |
Hyundai | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% |
Kia | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% |
Nissan | 6.0% | 8.0% | 5.8% |
Stellantis | 12.3% | 11.4% | 12.9% |
Subaru | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% |
Tesla | 3.6% | 1.4% | 4.0% |
Toyota | 14.4% | 16.0% | 15.2% |
Volkswagen Group | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% |
94.6% | 95.7% | 95.2% | |
Retail Market Share | |||
Manufacturer | Mar 2022 Forecast | Mar 2021 Actual | Feb 2022 Actual |
BMW | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% |
Daimler | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% |
Ford | 10.7% | 12.0% | 11.0% |
GM | 14.5% | 15.6% | 14.8% |
Honda | 9.4% | 10.5% | 8.9% |
Hyundai | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.8% |
Kia | 5.4% | 4.0% | 5.0% |
Nissan | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% |
Stellantis | 10.9% | 11.4% | 12.0% |
Subaru | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% |
Tesla | 4.1% | 1.7% | 4.5% |
Toyota | 15.2% | 16.4% | 15.0% |
Volkswagen Group | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% |
94.4% | 95.9% | 95.5% | |
ATP | |||||
Manufacturer | Mar 2022 Forecast | Mar 2021 Actual | Feb 2022 Actual | YOY | MOM |
BMW | $66,225 | $60,360 | $62,852 | 9.7% | 5.4% |
Daimler | $70,685 | $62,111 | $73,946 | 13.8% | -4.4% |
Ford | $47,621 | $45,155 | $48,294 | 5.5% | -1.4% |
GM | $49,878 | $43,134 | $51,105 | 15.6% | -2.4% |
Honda | $37,585 | $31,938 | $37,017 | 17.7% | 1.5% |
Hyundai | $36,133 | $29,739 | $36,767 | 21.5% | -1.7% |
Kia | $34,346 | $29,387 | $33,163 | 16.9% | 3.6% |
Nissan | $33,032 | $28,741 | $32,546 | 14.9% | 1.5% |
Stellantis | $53,320 | $44,135 | $52,515 | 20.8% | 1.5% |
Subaru | $34,516 | $30,894 | $34,334 | 11.7% | 0.5% |
Toyota | $40,431 | $34,980 | $39,992 | 15.6% | 1.1% |
Volkswagen Group | $46,153 | $43,549 | $46,598 | 6.0% | -1.0% |
Industry | $43,462 | $37,676 | $43,879 | 15.4% | -1.0% |
$5,786 | -$417 | ||||
Incentives | |||||
Manufacturer | Mar 2022 Forecast | Mar 2021 Actual | Feb 2022 Actual | YOY | MOM |
BMW | $2,237 | $4,997 | $2,582 | -55.2% | -13.3% |
Daimler | $2,053 | $4,221 | $2,243 | -51.4% | -8.5% |
Ford | $1,687 | $3,034 | $1,748 | -44.4% | -3.5% |
GM | $1,888 | $4,836 | $1,963 | -61.0% | -3.8% |
Honda | $1,109 | $2,382 | $1,159 | -53.5% | -4.3% |
Hyundai | $1,070 | $2,541 | $950 | -57.9% | 12.6% |
Kia | $1,140 | $2,817 | $1,239 | -59.5% | -8.0% |
Nissan | $1,550 | $3,331 | $1,789 | -53.5% | -13.4% |
Stellantis | $2,574 | $4,640 | $2,570 | -44.5% | 0.1% |
Subaru | $837 | $1,275 | $856 | -34.3% | -2.2% |
Toyota | $981 | $2,774 | $1,058 | -64.6% | -7.3% |
Volkswagen Group | $2,061 | $4,001 | $1,874 | -48.5% | 9.9% |
Industry | $1,581 | $3,424 | $1,657 | -53.8% | -4.6% |
-$1,843 | -$76 | ||||
Incentives as % of ATP | |||||
Manufacturer | Mar 2022 Forecast | Mar 2021 Actual | Feb 2022 Actual | YOY | MOM |
BMW | 3.4% | 8.3% | 4.1% | -59.2% | -17.7% |
Daimler | 2.9% | 6.8% | 3.0% | -57.3% | -4.2% |
Ford | 3.5% | 6.7% | 3.6% | -47.3% | -2.1% |
GM | 3.8% | 11.2% | 3.8% | -66.2% | -1.5% |
Honda | 3.0% | 7.5% | 3.1% | -60.4% | -5.7% |
Hyundai | 3.0% | 8.5% | 2.6% | -65.4% | 14.6% |
Kia | 3.3% | 9.6% | 3.7% | -65.4% | -11.2% |
Nissan | 4.7% | 11.6% | 5.5% | -59.5% | -14.6% |
Stellantis | 4.8% | 10.5% | 4.9% | -54.1% | -1.4% |
Subaru | 2.4% | 4.1% | 2.5% | -41.2% | -2.7% |
Toyota | 2.4% | 7.9% | 2.6% | -69.4% | -8.3% |
Volkswagen Group | 4.5% | 9.2% | 4.0% | -51.4% | 11.0% |
Industry | 3.6% | 9.1% | 3.8% | -60.0% | -3.7% |
Revenue | |||||
Manufacturer | Mar 2022 Forecast | Mar 2021 Actual | Feb 2022 Actual | YOY | MOM |
Industry | $54,197,050,283 | $60,469,364,982 | $46,421,894,319 | -10.4% | 16.7% |
Quarterly Tables
Total Unit Sales | |||||||
Manufacturer | Q1 2022 | Q1 2021 | Q4 2021 | YoY % Change | YoY % Change | QoQ % Change | QoQ % Change |
BMW | 74,304 | 77,718 | 100,891 | -4.4% | -5.7% | -26.4% | -23.4% |
Daimler | 60,021 | 70,236 | 77,114 | -14.5% | -15.7% | -22.2% | -19.1% |
Ford | 425,079 | 517,711 | 504,138 | -17.9% | -19.0% | -15.7% | -12.3% |
GM | 509,297 | 639,406 | 436,776 | -20.3% | -21.4% | 16.6% | 21.3% |
Honda | 261,388 | 347,091 | 287,206 | -24.7% | -25.7% | -9.0% | -5.3% |
Hyundai | 176,920 | 175,352 | 167,747 | 0.9% | -0.5% | 5.5% | 9.7% |
Kia | 154,279 | 159,550 | 145,891 | -3.3% | -4.6% | 5.7% | 10.0% |
Nissan | 196,724 | 285,553 | 195,433 | -31.1% | -32.0% | 0.7% | 4.7% |
Stellantis | 416,733 | 471,931 | 410,857 | -11.7% | -12.9% | 1.4% | 5.5% |
Subaru | 136,629 | 160,426 | 121,008 | -14.8% | -16.0% | 12.9% | 17.4% |
Tesla | 127,432 | 69,300 | 108,370 | 83.9% | 81.4% | 17.6% | 22.3% |
Toyota | 499,240 | 608,670 | 474,656 | -18.0% | -19.1% | 5.2% | 9.4% |
Volkswagen Group | 113,249 | 161,510 | 133,934 | -29.9% | -30.8% | -15.4% | -12.1% |
Industry | 3,306,944 | 3,910,569 | 3,298,307 | -15.4% | -16.6% | 0.3% | 4.3% |
Retail Unit Sales | |||||||
Manufacturer | Q1 2022 | Q1 2021 | Q4 2021 | YoY % Change | YoY % Change | QoQ % Change | QoQ % Change |
BMW | 72,574 | 72,722 | 96,537 | -0.2% | -1.5% | -24.8% | -21.8% |
Daimler | 56,940 | 67,742 | 72,398 | -15.9% | -17.1% | -21.4% | -18.2% |
Ford | 319,031 | 398,553 | 403,030 | -20.0% | -21.0% | -20.8% | -17.7% |
GM | 390,236 | 537,787 | 381,117 | -27.4% | -28.4% | 2.4% | 6.5% |
Honda | 258,781 | 342,231 | 285,047 | -24.4% | -25.4% | -9.2% | -5.6% |
Hyundai | 176,652 | 160,868 | 164,726 | 9.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 11.5% |
Kia | 144,196 | 135,437 | 138,541 | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 8.2% |
Nissan | 172,419 | 198,754 | 167,164 | -13.2% | -14.4% | 3.1% | 7.3% |
Stellantis | 320,372 | 385,913 | 345,269 | -17.0% | -18.1% | -7.2% | -3.5% |
Subaru | 133,030 | 152,878 | 117,668 | -13.0% | -14.1% | 13.1% | 17.6% |
Tesla | 126,427 | 68,866 | 104,893 | 83.6% | 81.1% | 20.5% | 25.4% |
Toyota | 457,351 | 537,958 | 440,175 | -15.0% | -16.1% | 3.9% | 8.1% |
Volkswagen Group | 110,967 | 144,664 | 130,333 | -23.3% | -24.3% | -14.9% | -11.5% |
Industry | 2,875,141 | 3,337,891 | 2,966,034 | -13.9% | -15.0% | -3.1% | 0.8% |
Total Market Share | |||
Manufacturer | Q1 2022 | Q1 2021 | Q4 2021 |
BMW | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.1% |
Daimler | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% |
Ford | 12.9% | 13.2% | 15.3% |
GM | 15.4% | 16.4% | 13.2% |
Honda | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.7% |
Hyundai | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% |
Kia | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% |
Nissan | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% |
Stellantis | 12.6% | 12.1% | 12.5% |
Subaru | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.7% |
Tesla | 3.9% | 1.8% | 3.3% |
Toyota | 15.1% | 15.6% | 14.4% |
Volkswagen Group | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
95.3% | 95.8% | 95.9% | |
Retail Market Share | |||
Manufacturer | Q1 2022 | Q1 2021 | Q4 2021 |
BMW | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.3% |
Daimler | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% |
Ford | 11.1% | 11.9% | 13.6% |
GM | 13.6% | 16.1% | 12.8% |
Honda | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.6% |
Hyundai | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% |
Kia | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% |
Nissan | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% |
Stellantis | 11.1% | 11.6% | 11.6% |
Subaru | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% |
Tesla | 4.4% | 2.1% | 3.5% |
Toyota | 15.9% | 16.1% | 14.8% |
Volkswagen Group | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% |
95.3% | 96.0% | 96.0% | |
ATP | ||||||
Manufacturer | Q1 2022 | Q1 2021 | Q4 2021 | YoY % Change | QoQ % Change | |
BMW | $63,812 | $59,439 | $60,025 | 7.4% | 6.3% | |
Daimler | $73,238 | $62,877 | $66,338 | 16.5% | 10.4% | |
Ford | $48,236 | $44,997 | $47,358 | 7.2% | 1.9% | |
GM | $50,717 | $42,982 | $51,728 | 18.0% | -2.0% | |
Honda | $36,451 | $31,144 | $33,309 | 17.0% | 9.4% | |
Hyundai | $36,173 | $30,726 | $34,533 | 17.7% | 4.7% | |
Kia | $33,845 | $29,355 | $30,886 | 15.3% | 9.6% | |
Nissan | $33,223 | $28,886 | $33,030 | 15.0% | 0.6% | |
Stellantis | $52,707 | $43,517 | $50,204 | 21.1% | 5.0% | |
Subaru | $34,709 | $30,955 | $32,720 | 12.1% | 6.1% | |
Toyota | $40,077 | $35,389 | $38,452 | 13.2% | 4.2% | |
Volkswagen Group | $46,358 | $42,327 | $41,563 | 9.5% | 11.5% | |
Industry | $43,841 | $37,872 | $42,366 | 15.8% | 3.5% | |
$5,969 | $1,475 | |||||
Incentives | ||||||
Manufacturer | Q1 2022 | Q1 2021 | Q4 2021 | YoY % Change | QoQ % Change | |
BMW | $2,538 | $5,124 | $3,010 | -50.5% | -15.7% | |
Daimler | $2,129 | $4,060 | $2,428 | -47.5% | -12.3% | |
Ford | $1,869 | $3,217 | $2,377 | -41.9% | -21.4% | |
GM | $1,965 | $4,653 | $1,916 | -57.8% | 2.6% | |
Honda | $1,172 | $2,357 | $1,515 | -50.3% | -22.7% | |
Hyundai | $1,049 | $2,379 | $1,176 | -55.9% | -10.8% | |
Kia | $1,373 | $2,734 | $1,754 | -49.8% | -21.8% | |
Nissan | $1,782 | $3,598 | $2,010 | -50.5% | -11.3% | |
Stellantis | $2,548 | $4,630 | $2,377 | -45.0% | 7.2% | |
Subaru | $892 | $1,302 | $1,032 | -31.5% | -13.6% | |
Toyota | $1,060 | $2,644 | $1,258 | -59.9% | -15.8% | |
Volkswagen Group | $1,964 | $3,813 | $2,103 | -48.5% | -6.6% | |
Industry | $1,680 | $3,428 | $1,894 | -51.0% | -11.3% | |
-$1,748 | -$214 | |||||
(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables auto buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars ? all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great auto buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter.
SOURCE TrueCar.com
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